Bell, Fiona 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6458-0276, Hodgson, Jenny ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2297-3631, Botham, Marc ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5276-1405, Brereton, Tom and Fenton, Andy ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7676-917X
(2022)
Grizzled Skippers (Pyrgus malvae) under threat: Investigating impacts of climate and land-use change on an early successional habitat UK specialist: Supplementary Data.
[Data Collection]
Description
A collection of thesis appendices, containing primary and secondary data, and code scripts for tidying, modelling and plotting data. The record contains Appendices 7, 8, 21, and 22. See ReadMe files for further information and data acknowledgements. Thesis abstract: The interacting forces of land-use and climate change are having unpredictable and idiosyncratic effects on species, both globally and within the United Kingdom. For example, there are some cases where previously threatened species are now expected to benefit from climate change, an outcome which could alleviate pressure on conservation resources and planning. In our study, we examined one such case; Pyrgus malvae, a warm-preferring butterfly and specialist of semi-natural ephemeral habitats in the south of England, which has been in long term decline. Declines were likely driven by habitat loss, but the species was predicted to expand northward under warming temperatures. However, in our investigations of long term abundance records, we found that P. malvae declines in the UK were steeper in the north and west of its range, and independent of climate effects, which negates the likelihood of imminent northward expansion. We then surveyed habitat patches and undertook analysis into signs of higher specificity towards the north or west, and found that habitat requirements were largely similar across its England range. Furthermore, we discovered that many ‘significant’ determinants of presence and abundance were related to physical structures associated with warm microclimates, reinforcing the already known importance of microclimates for the species. Having explored the risk to habitat quality for individual populations from habitat degradation, we then investigated the threats to metapopulations from land-use change and habitat loss to continued succession using Individual Based Modelling. We found that increased scrub encroachment in patches decreased overall time spent in habitat (i.e. opportunities for breeding and population growth), and movements between patches (i.e. impacting rescue effects and recolonisations). Additionally, intervention to protect individual sites at expense of others could have positive or negative effects on patch network connectivity, or time spent in habitat. Division of resources between sites should therefore consider desired outcomes at the landscape level. Based on our own findings, and existing literature, we have made some recommendations on implementing Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for P. malvae for conservation assessment and standardisation to combat gradual loss of populations around the country, which would increase the likelihood of collapse of population networks. More sustainable approaches to conservation will likely be needed in an environment with changing climate, longer growing seasons, higher nutrient deposition, and increasing land-use demands, in order to prevent further losses of P. malvae and species like it.
| Keywords: | Grizzled Skipper, Climate change, Land use change, UKBMS, IBM, Early successional, Conservation, Lepidoptera, Modelling, Habitat suitability, IBM, Agent based modelling |
|---|---|
| Divisions: | Faculty of Health and Life Sciences > Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences > Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences |
| Depositing User: | Fiona Bell |
| Date Deposited: | 20 Jul 2022 16:29 |
| Last Modified: | 20 Jul 2022 16:29 |
| DOI: | 10.17638/datacat.liverpool.ac.uk/1764 |
| URI: | https://datacat.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/1764 |
Available Files
Data
Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0 |
Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0 |
Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0 |
Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0 |
Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0 |
